They say lots of people are walking around with the great American novel in their heads.

But what about the idea for a new magazine, e-zine, newspaper, or newsletter?

Have you ever had a notion for a great new publication? I'll bet you have. Perhaps you've even felt tantalized by the thought. Just dreaming about the kind of publication you'd produce if you only had the time, money, independence, etc., can provide terrific vicarious enjoyment.

But let's get serious for a moment. Maybe you're really on to something with your idea for a publication. Perhaps you should earnestly be thinking about putting your ideas into an action plan. But the process for launching a start-up may be as clear to you as the know-how for sending the first person to another solar system!

Indeed, what are the secrets of starting a new publication? Who starts them? How do you plan for a start-up? And how do you execute your plan?

The Publication Starters

Who starts new publications, anyway? Of the publications launched overall, 60 percent are started by newcomers to publishing. Twenty percent of those are by non-profit organizations. It's not surprising that so many new publications are launched by publishing neophytes. Publishing is a relatively easy industry to enter. It is also an activity seen by many as a means for advancing a cause or an interest. For example, an individual highly interested in environmental protection might seek to start a publication in that field.

But for many of the start-ups, success can be elusive. Interestingly, of those publications that fail, 50 percent are started by newcomers, 50 percent by experienced publishers.

What, then, is the reason that some succeed and some fail? Of course there can be many reasons. Undercapitalization, insufficient demand, poor management, wrong strategies are among them. These are some of the pitfalls of the publication start-up game.

The Secrets of Success

In my experience, there are two start-up perils which are particularly insidious. They are (1) the lack of a realistic plan, and (2) an insufficient demand for the new publication.

In planning, striking a balance is important. Somewhere between a slapdash effort and one that's confounded by excessive concern for detail is a happy medium: a good workable plan. Just as you wouldn’t want to go off half-cocked to start a new publication, you'd never get one off the ground if you got caught up in "analysis paralysis". Wasn't it Alfred E. Newman who said, "What, me worry?" Perhaps a touch of that wisdom can be helpful.

Your plan should be practical, methodical and realistic. But you should not lose sight of the big picture due to inordinate attention to small details. Of great importance is committing the plan to paper. This will allow you to go back at various steps along the way to look at your original assumptions and expectations. You may revise your plan, change directions, or even scuttle the endeavor. But your performance and decisions will be greatly aided by having a good written plan.

A Crying Need -- Or a Need for Crying

Then there's the matter of whether there is a need for the publication. Be very cautious about this, particularly if the subject area in which you are to publish is dear to you. Many a new publisher has confused his or her own perception of "need" (based on a personal interest) for an actual market demand. The mix-up can cause a disaster.

Check out the need as best you can. Try focus groups, personal interviews, conversations with leaders in the field, with prospective advertisers. They can all provide help in reality-testing your perception of need.

However, don't expect the advice you get from these sources to be unbiased or 100% accurate. The real test will come when you bring your publication to market. There's no sure substitute for actually selling subscriptions or selling ad space as a means for determining whether your concept is viable!

The Practical Steps

Here's how to get started.

1. Develop a concept. Flesh out your ideas of what the publication is all about. What kind of articles will it include? What is the editorial position? Will you sell subscriptions? Is advertising to be included?

2. Develop a start-up business plan. Outline the market, take a look at all the expense and revenue. Plot your cash flow. Analyze profitability. Figure out how you'll produce and finance the venture.

3. Produce the marketing materials. Consider all the possible audiences to whom you'll be marketing: readers, advertisers, financial sources. Each will need a different, targeted marketing piece. A direct-mail package for the readers, a media kit for the advertisers, and a prospectus/business plan for the financial people.

4. Start the hard work.

The Start-up Business Plan

Two publishers I heard of recently put together business plans. The first had one objective in mind. He needed a document to present his bank as part of negotiations for financing. And so the plan was written with an exclusive emphasis on impressing the bank. The other publisher wasn't seeking financing. Her reason for constructing the plan was to optimize marketing efforts. The approach she used to develop the plan was to go out and get a ready-made computer spread-sheet program.

Both of these well-intentioned entrepreneurs missed a major point, however. A start-up business plan is not just a spreadsheet. It also is not just a boastful, exaggerated write-up intended to impress your bank or financial backer.

Rather, your business plan must be a well-thought-out blueprint of how you are going to start and operate your new publication. It provides a time for you to test assumptions, uncover pitfalls and to develop strategies that can guide you toward success.

There are seven essential elements that should be included in every plan. They are, (1) market description, (2) competition survey, (3) product concept, (4) organization, (5) marketing strategies, (6) production plan, and (7) financial plan. Following is a description of each element.

Market Description

Who will be the readers? Define the industry, profession, etc. Who are the component groups? How many are in each group? What are their interests? Are the prospective readers accessible, are lists available? Or how will you develop your own list? What is your total circulation potential? Conventional wisdom is that you can achieve a subscriber level of about 10 percent of those in a given market.

Who will be the advertisers? Who are they specifically? Is a list available? Whom are the advertisers trying to reach with their marketing messages? How much money are they spending on ads aimed at the field in which you will be publishing?

What About Competition?

Identify other publications serving the field exclusively. Also check those which cover the field in part. Who owns them? What are their frequency and circulation? What are their rates?

Are they profitable? Estimate their revenues and expenses to answer that question. For subscription revenue, multiply their claimed circulation figure by the subscription rate. (If they're mailed as "Periodicals Mail", you might want to get a copy of their Form 3541 Statement of Mailing from the Postal Service as verification.)

To estimate ad revenue, count up ad pages in their book. Exclude house ads, donated ads, etc. Then multiply the total by their rate card figures. However, in these days of selling off-card, it might be wise to probe the issue of whether they are selling discounted ads. Finally, estimate their expenses based on your knowledge of what things cost. This procedure should lead you to a fairly good idea of your competition's profitability.

Product Concept

Compared to the competition, will your editorial product be noticeably different or better?

Consider the publication's appearance. Its frequency? Ad/editorial ratio? Means of distribution? What will it cover editorially? Give a detailed list of the kinds of articles, features, and columns. An annotated table of contents in the first issue is a good way of describing content.

Organization

How much staff will be needed? Who will do what? Who will work for whom? Should you hire new people or use existing staff? What type of person will best fit into your start-up plan: are you looking for someone with an entrepreneurial zeal or with the steady hand of a seasoned line manager? Will start-up team members' styles be complementary or in conflict?

Marketing Strategies

"That's how you can tell what's good in America. It costs a lot." --Archie Bunker

How will you price subscriptions to your new publication? Will you undercut the competition? Or price your publication higher to bolster its perceived value? Will you offer introductory rates or subscription bonuses?

Consider whether distribution will be free or by subscription. Profitability from subscription revenue usually takes around three years. Can you meet your objectives better by distributing the publication free to a selected audience which advertisers will value?

Contemplate the timing of the first issue. Will you be coming out at a time that's favorable for selling ads and subscriptions? Don't try to sell against seasonal trends in your field. To do so can be like selling Christmas trees in July!

Are you going to buy mailing lists for promotion -- or will you compile your own?

In terms of advertising, it is important that the first issue look healthy, with lots of ads. Nothing will build advertiser confidence more than that. How will you handle sales? Will you use commissioned reps? Or use an in-house staff? How much of your sales efforts should be made out in the field vs. by telephone selling? Which method is best suited to the geographical distribution of the advertisers and their customary business practices?

Production Plan

How will you handle typesetting, layout, printing and binding, mailing, and other forms of distribution? How will the schedule for the new publication mesh with your (and your staff's) existing responsibilities? What vendors will you be working with?

Financial Plan

Start with projections. Base them on the decisions you've made with regard to the previous elements of this plan. Produce spread sheets. Do what-if analyses. Look at cash flow and profit-and-loss figures. Determine the maximum need for capital and when it occurs. Where will it come from? What will it cost? Be sure your accounting system will give quick, reliable feedback once operations commence. Such information will be vital in fine-tuning your plan and keeping your venture on track.

What About Check Points?

How far do you want to stick your neck out before risking its being cut off? That brings us to the matter of building in go/no-go check points (the first of which should have been before you even started writing the plan -- in the development of the concept). Set specific objectives in advance. For example, you may require a 3 percent response to a test marketing of subscriptions before going to the next step. You may require x pages of advertising sold before committing to printing and distributing the first issue.

Set your go/no-go check points so that you will receive early warnings of impending problems. If you've constructed a good plan, and the check points are saying "All systems go," you'll be on the road to success. But heed the warning if the message is "No go." It will save you from losing your shirt!